“demand analysis for the first italian private operator of high-speed services”

PASSENGER DEMAND FORECASTING FOR THE HIGH-SPEED SERVICE OF NTV S.P.A

Location

Italy

Implementation period

2009 – 2011

Client

NTV S.p.A.

Services provided

Passenger demand forecasting for the high-speed trains service of NTV S.p.A. and realization of a DSS (Decision Support System) in order to support the marketing strategy in terms of offered services, tariff structure and service level.

Description

The objective of the study is to estimate the mobility demand potentially interested in the services provided by NTV (the first private operator in passengers transportation on the high-speed network) on the basis of the peculiar characteristics of the service performed (quality, on board service, timetables, pre and post-trip ancillary services, etc.) as well as the necessary ancillary market studies (Revealed Preferences, Stated Preferences, Frequentation).

The Study includes both the optimization of the various components of railroad operations (timetables, frequencies, stops, etc.) and the review of the Business Plan (tariffs, passenger flows, etc.).

The origin-destination O/D matrices for the segments NTV is interested in were defined, both for the railroad transport and for the wheeled transport and the assessment of the time evolution of these matrices was performed; thus the national transport offer model was reconstructed. The model thus developed was adequately calibrated, also making use of surveys and interviews of the users of the High-Speed railroad service.

Furthermore, a dedicated study meant to estimate the demand of the competitor air transport service.

The study was developed under the supervision of an International Committee.

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